It's looking more likely than ever that voters in New York's 23rd U.S. House District will elect a Conservative to Congress — that's Conservative with a capital C.
I'm stunned, frankly, at today's development: The Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who less than a month ago was the favorite, has dropped out of the race. (Technically, she has suspended her campaign and told her supporters they could vote for someone else.)
If nothing else, this development suggests that chances are growing tinier that the Republican Party will be listening to the voices that suggest it should be a "big tent" and seek to get support from the center. For the reason that Scozzafava is dropping out is that various leading presidential contenders, among them Sarah Palin and up-and-comer Tim Pawlenty, endorsed the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman.
The one voice of reason in the party on this issue, Newt Gingrich, was one of few prominent Republicans urging a vote for Scozzafava. (The top two prospects for 2012, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, maintained conspicuous neutrality, apparently unwilling to alienate any of their supporters.) Gingrich's argument was that Republicans endorsing Hoffman would in all likely throw the race to the Dems — and it's more important to get elected and ultimately a majority position in the House than it is to maintain ideological purity.
His argument made sense — but it's turning out to be wrong. Hoffman was getting so much support from national Republicans (and with it, campaign money) that instead of Hoffman and Scozzafava splitting the GOP-leaning vote, it was starting to look like Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens would split the moderate-to-liberal vote. In dropping out, Scozzafava acknowledged difficulty raising campaign cash and also noted that many of her supporters were under pressure to support the Conservative.
Undoubtedly, the outcome of Tuesday's race will be considered a test of some sort of how voters feel about the direction the Congress and President Barack Obama are taking. At this point, it isn't looking good for the Democrats.
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