Previewing election night 2009

Off-off-year elections, those in odd-numbered years, don't usually get a lot of attention, but at least three contests that to be decided Tuesday have national significance.

Leading the list is a referendum, Question 1 in Maine, the "people's veto" of Maine's same-sex-marriage law. The significance of that contest is that if it passes, the election will mark the first time that voters in a U.S. state have supported gay marriage; in all other states allowing such marriages, the decision has been made by a legislature or, more often, a court. Millions of dollars have been spent in the state, and polls have shows the race extremely tight. The most visible support for the veto has come from the Roman Catholic church. Forecast: The veto will pass with 52 percent of the vote as the off-year turnout favors more conservative voters.

A similar issue faces Washington voters, where Referendum 71 asks voters to ratify the legislature's "everything but marriage" law, granting same-sex couples all the legal benefits and obligations of marriage without calling it marriage. The most visible opposition has come from evangelical Protestant conservatives. Forecast: If this were a marriage referendum, the vote would be a close one, even in relatively unchurched Washington. But without the definition of marriage itself at stake, a victory of around 61 percent can be expected.

Both of these referendums are being carefully watched by the gay-rights movement and Christian conservatives. If Maine's veto wins, it will slow but not halt the effort to redefine marriage; if the veto fails, gay-rights activists will be enthused and find it easier to persuade legislatures in New York and elsewhere to get on the bandwagon.

If Washington's measure passes, same-sex couples will have basically the same rights as they do now in California after the defeat of Proposition 8. But they'll declare it a big victory anyway. And it wouldn't be surprising if they go to court in an effort to get the label of marriage as well as the legal package.

One U.S. House race has also been drawing attention. Details of the New York 23rd Congressional District contest are highlighted in an earlier post. The outcome will be seen as a referendum of sorts on the Democratic Congress, although a victory for Conservative Doug Hoffman would bring no substantive change to the balance in the House. Forecast: Hoffman will win with a bare majority of the vote.

Among the other races that have received national news media attention are New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's re-election bid (he'll win handily), New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's messy re-election bid (he'll be narrowly ousted by Republical Chris Christie), and the contest for an open governorship in Virginia (voting turnout patterns favor the Republican, John McDonnell). All those races are being fought primarily on local issues, so (despite what the election-night pundits will likely be saying to a small audience Tuesday) the outcomes won't have a lot to say about the national mood.